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Trump and Musk’s Space Showdown: A Look at SpaceX’s Impact
Image: President Donald Trump speaks with Elon Musk (right). — AFP/File
In Washington, SpaceX plays a pivotal role in the U.S. space program, transporting astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) and providing global broadband coverage through its Starlink satellite network. Moreover, the company is involved in some of the Pentagon’s most critical initiatives, including the monitoring of hypersonic missiles.
Therefore, when former President Donald Trump threatened to terminate Elon Musk’s federal contracts last Thursday, many in the space community took notice.
Musk, currently the wealthiest individual on the planet, quickly responded by stating he would halt the Dragon capsule—the spacecraft NASA depends on for manned missions—though he later walked back that assertion within a few hours.
Experts suggest that the interdependence between Musk and the government should prevent a complete fallout, but this incident highlights how disruptive such a split could be.
Since its inception in 2002, SpaceX has surpassed traditional contractors to emerge as the world’s leading launch service provider. Guided by Musk’s vision of making life multiplanetary, the company is now NASA’s exclusive option for sending astronauts to the ISS, a symbol of international cooperation in the post-Cold War era, and a testing ground for missions to deeper space.
The Implications of Space Monopoly
SpaceX has successfully completed ten crew rotations to the ISS and has contracts for four more, with a total worth of nearly $5 billion. This is part of a larger portfolio which includes $4 billion from NASA for the development of the next-generation Starship and nearly $6 billion from the Space Force for launch operations, as well as approximately $1.8 billion for a classified satellite surveillance network.
If the Dragon capsule were to be grounded, the U.S. would need to return to using Russian Soyuz rockets for ISS access—something it relied on between 2011 and 2020 after retiring the Space Shuttle and before Crew Dragon became operational.
"Given the current global tensions, that wouldn’t be ideal," noted space analyst Laura Forczyk.
NASA anticipated that Boeing’s Starliner would serve as a backup, but continued delays and a failed crewed test last year have resulted in it remaining grounded. Even Northrop Grumman’s resupply missions now depend on SpaceX’s Falcon 9, considered the backbone of its rocket fleet.
This situation could also put a damper on NASA’s Artemis program, which has plans for a lunar lander version of Starship for future manned Moon missions. If Starship were to be sidelined, competitor Blue Origin might gain ground, but timelines would likely slip, providing an opportunity for China, which aims for a human landing by 2030, as Forczyk warns.
"There are very few rockets as capable as Falcon 9; it’s not easy to simply walk away from it, regardless of what President Trump believes," she stated.
Meanwhile, NASA seems eager to demonstrate that alternatives are available. "NASA is currently evaluating the earliest possibility for a Starliner flight to the ISS in early 2026, contingent on system certification and resolving Starliner’s technical challenges," the agency said in a statement to AFP.
However, this conflict might dampen Trump’s enthusiasm for space initiatives overall, Forczyk cautioned, complicating NASA’s future plans.
It’s worth noting that SpaceX is not solely reliant on government contracts; revenue from Starlink subscriptions and commercial launches contributes significantly to its profits, with upcoming missions already planned in collaboration with Axiom Space, which includes astronauts from India, Poland, and Hungary, funded by their governments.
The Balance of Private Power and Public Risk
Nonetheless, losing federal contracts would be a substantial setback for SpaceX. "The ramifications would be so severe for both sides that it’s tough to imagine how U.S. space operations could fill that gap," remarked Clayton Swope, deputy director at the Aerospace Security Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Both parties have strong incentives to resolve their differences and get back to work."
The beginnings of this rift were visible last weekend when the White House unexpectedly withdrew its nomination of e-payments magnate Jared Isaacman—an ally of Musk who has journeyed to space twice with SpaceX—for the position of NASA administrator.
On a recent podcast, Isaacman suggested that he was dropped because "some individuals had grievances to settle, and I was a convenient target."
This entire episode may reignite discussions about the U.S. government’s reliance on commercial partners, especially given that one company, SpaceX, holds such an overwhelming share of the market.
Swope pointed out that while federal agencies have historically preferred contracting services from the private sector, military leaders are inclined to own the systems upon which they depend. "This event may highlight the risks of such heavy reliance," he concluded. "The notion that trust might not be well-placed is now on many people’s minds."
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