Michael Jackson Biopic Set for $90M Debut, Breaks Box Office Records

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Digital Phablet – Antoine Fuqua’s Michael Jackson biopic is on track to shatter box office records in the United States, with an opening projection of approximately $90 million.

According to insiders familiar with early box office data, the film is expected to earn around $37 million to $38 million on opening day alone, leading to a three-day total surpassing $88 million. This achievement marks a significant milestone for Lionsgate. Globally, the film is anticipated to gross around $180 million during its debut weekend, largely thanks to Jackson’s immense popularity overseas, where Universal is handling its global distribution.

Domestically, Michael was initially projected to debut in the $65 million to $70 million range, which would have already made it the biggest opening for a music biopic ever, not adjusted for inflation. The current record belongs to Universal’s Straight Outta Compton with $60.1 million, followed by Fox’s Bohemian Rhapsody, about Freddie Mercury, with $55 million.

The film’s true potential was evident when it netted $12.6 million during Wednesday and Thursday previews, placing it alongside 2026 hits like Hail Project Mary, and ahead of other major releases such as Dune: Part II and Oppenheimer, which each reported previews around $10 million.

A key concern was whether the film would be front-loaded. However, audience reactions suggest strong enthusiasm, reflected in a high 96 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Internationally, Universal reports that the film’s release across 82 markets began with an $18.5 million day one, charting the largest opening day ever for a biopic in many territories. In France, Michael was shown on 743 screens, quickly becoming the biggest opening day for a biopic, outpacing the debut of Oppenheimer and Bohemian Rhapsody.

Despite mixed reviews from critics, with Rotten Tomatoes scores fluctuating between 29 and 33 percent primarily due to controversy over how the film was edited—particularly the decision to omit allegations of child sexual abuse from 1993—audiences have responded positively. The film’s focus on Jackson’s early career, ending with the 1988 Bad World Tour, appears to resonate strongly.

Michael’s nephew, Taj Jackson, publicly addressed the media, asserting that the narrative of who Michael Jackson truly was should be left to the viewers, rather than the press, emphasizing that the film’s viewers will decide Jackson’s story for themselves.

Critics like THR’s David Rooney acknowledge the film’s emotional depth, stating, “Fuqua and screenwriter John Logan avoid sensationalism, instead capturing a core of melancholy behind Michael Jackson’s soaring success that is genuinely moving.” Rooney also notes that the film does not shy away from addressing or avoiding the controversy but rather contextualizes Jackson’s early years before allegations surfaced.

On Rotten Tomatoes, Michael has surpassed Elvis as the highest-rated biopic by audience score, reaching a 94 percent rating, a testament to its popularity among viewers. By Thursday evening, critical ratings had slightly improved to 40 percent, but audience sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive.

Recent updates reveal that the film was extensively revised before release, removing the 1993 allegations due to legal agreements with Jackson’s estate, which initially were intended to be central to the story’s third act. This change has sparked a debate among fans and critics about how truth and legacy are being portrayed.

When Michael debuted three weeks ago, industry analysts estimated domestic opening figures between $55 million and $60 million. The unexpected surge indicates that nostalgia is a powerful driver, enticing casual and hardcore fans alike, particularly Gen Z audiences, to theaters once again.

The film is now projected to surpass Oppenheimer’s $82 million opening, potentially setting a new record for the highest-grossing opening for a biopic of all time, with forecasts ranging from $85 million to $105 million domestically over the weekend.

Internationally, the film is expanding into 82 markets outside Japan, with most major cities opening on Wednesday. It grossed $16.6 million from these markets, including previews, bringing the total international gross to $18.5 million.

Highlights from international markets include:

France: $2.6 million, the largest opening day for a biopic ever.
U.K. and Ireland: $2.6 million, the biggest opening day for a musical biopic.
Italy: $1.3 million, the highest opening day for a musical biopic.
Australia: $1 million, surpassing previous records for musical biopics.
Brazil: $651,000 from previews, totaling $2 million, the highest preview gross for a non-franchise, non-superhero film thus far.

Fans and industry observers continue to watch closely as Michael makes its global impact, driven by a mix of nostalgia, new audiences, and strategic editing choices.