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Signatories of the historic nuclear non-proliferation treaty will gather at the United Nations starting Monday, as optimism dims about reaching a consensus and tensions escalate among nuclear-armed nations. In 2022, during the previous review, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that humanity was “just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.” The situation has only deteriorated since then.
Izumi Nakamitsu, the UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, expressed concern, stating, “All member states seem to share a sense of crisis.” She highlighted that there are currently no bilateral arms control agreements between the world’s two largest nuclear powers, especially noting the expiration of the New START treaty between Moscow and Washington in February. She added, “We are also seeing an overall increase in nuclear capabilities across all nuclear-armed nations.”
Nakamitsu emphasized that rising geopolitical conflicts have halted the post-Cold War momentum toward disarmament. The nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), ratified by nearly every country—except notable outliers like Israel, India, and Pakistan—aims to curb nuclear weapons proliferation, promote disarmament, and foster cooperation on civilian nuclear technology.
As of January 2025, the nine countries with nuclear arsenals—Russia, the United States, France, the UK, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea—possessed a combined total of 12,241 nuclear warheads, according to SIPRI. The U.S. and Russia hold nearly 90% of these weapons and have recently invested heavily in modernizing them. China’s nuclear stockpile has also expanded rapidly, prompting G7 nations to warn about Moscow and Beijing’s growing nuclear capabilities.
Former President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of conducting new nuclear tests, citing other countries’ actions. In March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a significant upgrade to France’s nuclear force, which now totals about 290 warheads.
Seth Sheldon from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), a Nobel laureate organization, noted, “Trust is clearly eroding inside and outside the NPT framework.” He questioned the summit’s prospects, pointing out that decisions require consensus and previous conferences failed to produce formal political statements. In 2015, disagreements mainly stemmed from U.S. opposition to establishing a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, while in 2022, disputes centered around Russia’s objections to references to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which Moscow occupies.
This year’s summit faces numerous hurdles, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, proliferation fears among non-nuclear states, and North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal. If the summit ends in failure for a third consecutive time, experts suggest the NPT could gradually disintegrate, even if it doesn’t collapse overnight.
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a key issue on the agenda, with some nations advocating for maintaining human control over nuclear weapons to prevent accidental or unauthorized use.
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