India State Elections Highlight Growing Hindu-Muslim Divide

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Supporters of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate outside the party’s regional office in Kolkata, India, on May 4, 2026, as the party leads in the West Bengal state assembly elections. — Reuters

In the recent elections across four states, the Congress party has gained increased Muslim voter support, while the BJP has solidified its base among Hindus, according to analysts. Adhikari describes the BJP’s victories in Assam and West Bengal as a triumph of Hindutva.

PM Modi’s BJP opted not to run Muslim candidates in key regions, instead relying on strong Hindu voter backing for their wins. Data from the elections shows a clear trend: Muslim voters have increasingly supported the Congress party, while Hindu voters predominantly favored Modi’s BJP. This pattern underscores escalating religious polarization within the country’s secular framework, reflecting a persistent ideological divide between the two major parties.

Since coming to power in 2014, Modi has championed a pro-Hindu agenda, with the BJP aligning with Hindutva—a Hindu-centric ideology. This voter split benefits the BJP, as Hindus make up nearly 80% of India’s 1.42 billion population, with Muslims constituting about 14%.

Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai notes, “The rise of the BJP has prompted Muslim voters to consolidate behind so-called secular parties, especially Congress—what we’re witnessing is a form of reverse polarization.” Muslim leaders indicate that their communities are increasingly turning to Congress or regional parties over smaller parties that focus on Muslim issues but rarely enter government.

The latest election results, announced this week, reveal Congress’s poor performance overall. The party gained control of just one state, while BJP-led coalitions overtook three others, and a regional group won the remaining contest. In Assam, where BJP maintains power, 18 of the 19 newly elected lawmakers are Muslim—up from about 16 in the last assembly. The BJP fielded 20 Muslim candidates out of 126 seats and won 82 seats overall. Meanwhile, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which primarily relies on Muslim support, saw its seats drop from 16 five years ago to just two.

In West Bengal, which the BJP secured for the first time with 207 seats out of 294, the two Congress legislators elected were Muslim. Neither Assam nor West Bengal saw Muslim candidates from the BJP—support for the party was attributed by leaders, including Bengal’s prospective chief minister Suvendu Adhikari, to Hindu voters. “It was a victory for Hindutva,” Adhikari stated.

Looking ahead, political columnist Radhika Ramaseshan suggests, “Depending on regional dynamics, Muslim voters might continue to consolidate behind Congress, prompting Hindu voters to rally more strongly around the BJP.” Congress has capitalized on fears among Muslim voters who feel marginalized under BJP rule and question their citizenship, argues Badruddin Ajmal, head of AIUDF.

He adds, “The narrative is that only a party capable of challenging the BJP at the national level can address these concerns. While this isn’t entirely accurate, voters are scared.” In response, the BJP accuses Congress of becoming a “new Muslim League,” though Congress asserts Muslims constitute about 12% of its 664 state legislators nationwide, with Hindus making up approximately 78%, consistent with India’s demographics.

Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera expressed discomfort over discussions of religion, emphasizing that the party has broad, inclusive support. “We’ve historically stood for the oppressed and vulnerable, regardless of their religion or caste, and we will continue to do so,” he affirmed.

While the BJP has also sought Muslim outreach, it did not nominate Muslim candidates in the 2024 general elections. Modi has consistently denied using religion to win votes, asserting, “If I start talking about Hindus and Muslims in politics, I’ll lose my ability to serve the public. That’s my commitment.”

However, Ramaseshan notes that religious rhetoric, particularly around election time, has sharply increased under Modi compared to earlier BJP leadership. “The BJP and its ideological parent, the Sangh, are shaping a new vision of India as a ‘Hindu Rashtra,’ and that narrative is increasingly influencing the national consciousness. This could lead to a fundamental shift in how India’s identity is perceived in the future,” she warns.