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In 2025, China experienced its fourth consecutive year of population decline, with the birthrate hitting a historic low, according to official figures released on Monday. The population decreased by 3.39 million, totaling approximately 1.405 billion, with the decline accelerating compared to 2024. The number of births in 2025 fell to 7.92 million, a 17% drop from 9.54 million in the previous year. Meanwhile, deaths increased to 11.31 million from 10.93 million in 2024, as reported by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
The birth rate in the country decreased to 5.63 per 1,000 residents. Demographer Yi Fuxian from the University of Wisconsin-Madison remarked that the 2025 birth figures are comparable to those in 1738, when China’s population was only around 150 million. The death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 people marked the highest since 1968.
Since 2022, China’s population has been shrinking and aging rapidly, complicating the government’s efforts to stimulate domestic consumption and control debt. Around 23% of the population is now over the age of 60. Projections indicate that by 2035, this age group will reach 400 million—nearly equivalent to the combined populations of the U.S. and Italy—leading to a significant decline in the workforce while pension demands grow. The government has already increased retirement ages, with men expected to work until age 63 instead of 60, and women until age 58 instead of 55.
Marriage rates plummeted in 2024, dropping by 20%, the largest decline on record, with just over 6.1 million couples tying the knot compared to 7.68 million in 2023. Since marriage trends typically precede birth rates in China, these figures raise concerns about future fertility.
In May 2025, authorities eased marriage restrictions by permitting couples to wed anywhere nationwide, regardless of their registered residence. This policy change is anticipated to temporarily boost the birth rate. During the third quarter of 2025, marriages increased by 22.5% year-over-year to 1.61 million, hinting at a potential reversal of nearly a decade of declining marriage numbers. Full data for 2025 will be published later this year.
To counteract demographic challenges rooted in the legacy of the one-child policy, which was in effect from 1980 to 2015, the government is promoting more positive attitudes towards marriage and childbearing. Efforts include launching subsidies for families and guaranteeing that pregnant women will incur no out-of-pocket expenses in 2026, with all maternity-related medical costs, including IVF, fully covered by the national insurance system.
Population shifts also play a significant role, with many moving from rural areas to cities, where raising children becomes more costly. Urbanization reached 68% in 2025, up from about 43% in 2005. Population planning has become a central facet of China’s economic strategy, with estimates suggesting the government may spend around 180 billion yuan (roughly $25.8 billion) in 2025 to encourage higher birth rates.
Among the measures are a nationwide child subsidy policy introduced last year and a commitment that women will face no out-of-pocket expenses during pregnancy in 2026, including full coverage for assisted reproductive procedures under the country’s medical insurance. China’s fertility rate remains one of the lowest globally at approximately 1 birth per woman—the replacement level being 2.1—and other East Asian nations like Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore have similarly low fertility rates close to 1.1 births per woman.
The demographic outlook is further strained by a shrinking reproductive-age female population, which the United Nations estimates will decrease by more than 67%, falling below 100 million by the century’s end.
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