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China is projected to see substantial GDP growth of 4.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, an upward revision from earlier estimates of 4.0% for both years, according to the latest report from the World Bank on East Asia and the Pacific region. This optimistic outlook is driven by strong export figures and persistent manufacturing output, despite anticipating a slowdown in export growth, potential reductions in government stimulus, and ongoing structural economic challenges.
The broader region is also expected to grow at 4.8% in 2025, surpassing previous forecasts of 4.0%. Among neighboring countries, Vietnam is anticipated to lead growth with a rate of 6.6%, followed by Mongolia at 5.9%, and Palau at 5.7%, all in 2025.
While the region continues to outperform much of the global economy, it faces hurdles such as increasing economic policy uncertainty worldwide, rising trade restrictions, and political instability within some nations. These issues have dampened both consumer and business confidence, leading to a slowdown in investment activities.
A senior analyst within the World Bank highlighted that the region is experiencing a jobs paradox—economic growth remains robust, yet the creation of quality employment opportunities is lagging. He called on governments to lower market entry barriers to enable the private sector to generate more jobs.
The report also stresses the importance of implementing policy reforms and making strategic investments in human capital and digital infrastructure. Key recommendations include boosting competition in the services sector and adopting measures that better match workers’ skills with available employment opportunities.
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