Top European Countries with the Highest Muslim Population by 2050

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The Future of Muslim Populations Across Europe in 2025

As Europe continues to evolve demographically, projections about Islamic communities across the continent reveal significant growth and shifts by the year 2025. According to the Pew Research Center’s latest high migration scenario, here’s an overview of where Muslim populations are expected to stand in various European countries, highlighting both the percentages and regional trends.

Sweden: The Forefront of Muslim Population Growth

In 2025, Sweden is projected to see Muslims constitute about 31.2% of its total population. The Scandinavian country’s longstanding position as a leader in welcoming migrants, combined with high birth rates among Muslim communities, has contributed to this demographic change. Cities like Stockholm and Gothenburg are likely to have vibrant Muslim communities, influencing local culture, cuisine, and social life.

Austria and Germany: Two Central European Giants

Austria is expected to have a Muslim population of roughly 20.5%, with Germany closely behind at 20.1%. As the largest economy in Europe, Germany remains a major hub for refugees and migrants. Its diverse cities, such as Berlin and Munich, will showcase prominent Muslim communities that influence everything from business to the arts.

Belgium, France, and the UK: Major North-Western European Countries

Belgium is projected to have about 19.2% Muslim residents in 2025, while France will see around 19%, and the United Kingdom approximately 17.2%. These countries have long-standing Muslim communities due to historical ties and ongoing migration. London, Brussels, and Paris will continue to be multicultural centers, with mosques, halal restaurants, and Islamic schools integral to city life.

Scandinavian Nations: Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands

Northern Europe’s demographic landscape also reflects notable growth:

Norway is forecasted to have 17% Muslim residents.
Denmark will report about 16%.
The Netherlands sits at approximately 15.2%.

These nations have seen increased migration from the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia, contributing to expanding Islamic communities that shape local policies and cultural diversity.

Finland, Italy, and Switzerland: Emerging Muslim Populations

Finland is expected to have roughly 15% Muslim citizens in 2025, highlighting its rapid demographic shifts. Italy and Switzerland are close behind with 14.1% and 12.9%, respectively. Major urban areas like Milan, Rome, Zurich, and Geneva will see an increasing presence of Muslim residents, impacting urban development, social services, and community engagement.

Southern and Eastern Europe: Slower Growth but Significant Presence

Greece is projected to have a Muslim population of 9.7%, particularly in regions like Thessaloniki and Athens. Spain’s Muslim community is expected to reach 7.2%, influenced by migration from North Africa and Latin America. Eastern European nations display more modest numbers:

Czech Republic at 1.2%
Slovakia at 0.7%
Poland at 0.2%

While smaller, these communities are expected to grow steadily, especially through intercontinental migration and natural increase.

Observations and Future Outlook

The projections reflect a high migration scenario, assuming continued sustained movement from predominantly Muslim countries into Europe. These demographic shifts could have profound implications for social policies, integration efforts, and cultural exchanges across the continent.

European nations are increasingly recognizing the need for inclusive policies that promote social cohesion amid these rapidly changing demographics. As Muslim populations grow in both size and visibility, their influence on education, politics, arts, and local economies is set to deepen—making Europe’s diversity more vibrant than ever before.

Note: All figures are based on projections from Pew Research Center for 2025 under high migration scenarios, reflecting ongoing demographic trends and migration patterns across Europe.

Published in 2025, this analysis underscores Europe’s evolving demographic landscape and the rising prominence of Muslim communities across the continent.