Robot Manufacturing Costs to Fall 70% in Next Decade, Report Finds

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The production costs for humanoid robots are expected to decrease by approximately 60 to 70 percent over the next decade. This decline is attributed to a maturing supply chain and the emergence of economies of scale, with China’s robust manufacturing infrastructure playing a key role in establishing competitive advantages.

Over the past ten years, the cost of materials for new energy vehicles has dropped between 50 and 60 percent, mirroring a similar downward trend in the humanoid robot industry. It is projected that by 2035, expenses for such robots could fall to a range of $10,000 to $20,000, down from current costs of $40,000 to $50,000, as noted in a recent report from a leading management consulting firm.

For instance, the costs of planetary roller screws and six-dimensional force sensors—components that account for roughly 40 percent of a humanoid robot’s manufacturing expenses—are expected to decrease by 70 to 80 percent as more manufacturers enter the market, according to the report.

Regarding core components like artificial intelligence chips, batteries, and thermal regulation systems, China’s extensive supply chain and rapid technological advancements position the country well to develop large-scale manufacturing capabilities, potentially creating significant industrial advantages in the future.

Cost reductions for planetary roller screws and six-dimensional force sensors through mass production are anticipated within three to five years. Other critical parts may see major breakthroughs in five to ten years. China is particularly well-positioned to make progress on AI chips, with low-end chips expected to achieve independence and control within five years, and high-end chips advancing rapidly over the next decade.

Despite the sector still being in its early stages of development, falling production costs are likely to make humanoid robots cost-effective enough to outperform human labor in certain industries, signaling a potential turning point for widespread substitution of human workers.

The humanoid robot market is projected to experience a period of rapid growth in the next five to ten years. Global sales could reach approximately 6 million units, with the industry valued at over $120 billion by 2035. In a more optimistic outlook, sales might surpass 10 million units, and the market could grow to $260 billion.

Initially, the primary applications for humanoid robots will be in scientific research and industrial testing. Industries such as automotive, electronics, and machinery are expected to be the first to replace human workers with androids. Over time, these robots are likely to expand into healthcare, logistics, retail, and household markets.

The industry is poised for significant expansion, with an increasing number of applications across diverse sectors and a promising trajectory for technological and market development in the coming years.