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In a remarkable turn of events, two 19-year-old college dropouts, Cam Fink and Ned Koh, have accurately forecasted the results of a highly scrutinized New York Democratic primary using AI chatbots—without polling a single person.
Their startup, Aaru, claims to have revolutionized election polling by substituting conventional methods with a multitude of AI agents, asserting this innovative approach yields more precise outcomes.
The poll effectively predicted centrist candidate George Latimer’s victory over incumbent Jamaal Bowman, with results almost spot-on at 58.7% to 41.3%.
Aaru’s methodology, which utilizes census data to simulate voter behavior, has attracted the attention of Fortune 500 companies, political campaigns, and research organizations. One political campaign in California has now adopted Aaru as its main polling resource.
According to Cam and Ned, their AI agents are designed to mirror voters’ personalities and consume media in real time, allowing them to adjust their political views dynamically. Aaru can conduct polls using 5,000 AI respondents in just a minute, and the cost is significantly lower than that of traditional human surveys.
The startup harnesses census information to construct voter districts by creating AI agents that embody the mindsets of actual voters. These agents are imbued with numerous personality traits, covering aspects such as aspirations and family situations. They continually explore the internet, gathering data to reflect the media consumption styles of the voters they are designed to emulate, which can sometimes lead to fluctuations in their political inclinations.
For instance, in the aftermath of an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, many of Aaru’s AI agents swiftly altered their political preferences to back him. However, as more information about the shooter came to light, some agents reverted to their previous positions.
Despite ongoing doubts about the reliability of large language models, Aaru’s achievements indicate that AI-driven polling could soon become standard practice. The think tank Heartland Forward has recently enlisted Aaru to conduct a survey on public perceptions of AI across nine U.S. states, underscoring the corporate interest in this new polling technique.
While AI chatbots are not perfect, Cam is optimistic that their forecasting capabilities will eventually surpass those of traditional polling methods. “By the time the next general election rolls around, I don’t believe there will be any conventional polling left,” he asserted.
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