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The Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo will finally reveal the winner on Friday at 11:00 a.m. (9:00 GMT), ending the suspense. The backdrop for this year’s announcement is grim: 2024 has seen the highest number of armed conflicts involving at least one state since Sweden’s Uppsala University began its global conflict database in 1946.
Donald Trump has consistently claimed he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for resolving “eight conflicts,” but experts believe he probably won’t be the committee’s selection this year. Swedish international affairs expert Peter Wallensteen told AFP, “No, it won’t be Trump this year. Maybe next year? By then, the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis.”
Many analysts criticize Trump’s “peacemaker” assertions as overblown and worry about the broader implications of his “America First” policies. Trump maintains he should be honored for resolving multiple conflicts, but experts remain skeptical. Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, pointed out, “Apart from efforts in Gaza, we’ve seen policies contradicting Nobel’s original intent to promote international cooperation, solidarity among nations, and disarmament.”
Graeger emphasized that Trump’s actions often diverge from the ideals symbolized by the Nobel Peace Prize. His tenure included withdrawing the U.S. from international organizations and multilateral treaties, initiating trade wars with allies and adversaries, threatening to seize Greenland from Denmark by force, deploying the National Guard into U.S. cities, and attacking academic freedoms and free expression.
Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the five-member Nobel Peace Prize committee, explained, “We consider the full picture—including personality and character—but primarily, we assess actual achievements toward peace.”
This year, a total of 338 individuals and organizations were nominated, with the list remaining secret for the past 50 years. Anyone eligible to suggest candidates includes lawmakers, cabinet members, past laureates, university professors, and Nobel committee members.
The committee’s chair stated that all factors will be taken into account when choosing the prize. In 2024, the award went to Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese group of atomic bomb survivors, for their efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons.
With no clear frontrunner in 2024, several names have circulated in Oslo ahead of Friday’s announcement. These include Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms—volunteers risking their lives to aid war and famine victims—the widow of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, Yulia Navalnaya, and the OSCE election watchdog.
Recent Nobel selections suggest a shift toward more narrowly focused, traditional notions of peace—highlighting human rights, democracy, press freedom, and gender equality—according to Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs. He speculates that this year’s award might go to a less controversial candidate.
The prize could also reinforce support for the existing world order challenged by Trump. Options include honoring UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, agencies like UNHCR or UNRWA, international courts such as the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court, or organizations advocating press freedom, like the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.
Yet, the committee also has a history of surprising everyone with an unexpected choice, leaving the door open for an unconventional recipient.
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