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On Sunday, President Donald Trump urged Cuba to negotiate a deal with the U.S., emphasizing that the island will soon lose oil and financial support from Venezuela. Venezuela has traditionally been Cuba’s primary source of oil, but since Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces, Trump has pushingly prompted interim President Delcy Rodriguez to redirect Venezuelan oil shipments to the United States.
Trump tweeted on Truth Social, “There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba—zero! I strongly recommend they make a deal before it’s too late.” He added, “For many years, Cuba depended heavily on large amounts of oil and money from Venezuela.”
U.S. intelligence assessments depict a bleak economic and political outlook for Cuba. However, they stop short of confirming Trump’s claim that the island is “ready to fall,” according to Saturday reports from Reuters, referencing three sources with access to confidential analyses. The CIA reports that key sectors like agriculture and tourism are under immense strain due to frequent blackouts, sanctions, and other issues.
Losing Venezuelan oil and support could complicate governance for the Cuban government, which has been in power since Fidel Castro’s revolution in 1959. Last year, Venezuela supplied an average of 27,000 barrels of oil daily to Cuba—about half of the nation’s oil shortfall—based on shipping data and Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA documents.
In addition, Trump reposted a social media comment suggesting that Marco Rubio, whose parents emigrated from Cuba, might become the next leader of Cuba. The repost featured a message from user Cliff Smith, posted January 8, stating, “Marco Rubio will be president of Cuba,” accompanied by a laughing-crying emoji. Trump responded with, “Sounds good to me!”
The user behind the post, a conservative Californian with fewer than 500 followers, wrote, “Let’s see how that unfolds,” or similar. His repost came a week after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a nighttime raid in Caracas, which resulted in multiple casualties among Venezuelan and Cuban security personnel.
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