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Iran has been facing widespread protests since 2022, fueled by economic hardships such as the currency losing half its value against the U.S. dollar last year and inflation soaring above 40% in December. The demonstrations represent the most significant internal challenge to Iran’s government in at least three years, especially after recent conflicts with Israel and the U.S., which have left the regime more fragile than during previous unrest.
Adding to the turmoil, U.S. President Donald Trump has issued repeated threats of military intervention, criticizing Iran’s harsh crackdown on protesters. Trump also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all countries doing business with Iran, intensifying economic pressure. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi dismissed these threats, asserting that the country is “prepared for war but also open to dialogue.”
In a stark display of the crisis’s severity, Iranian authorities enacted an internet blackout lasting over three days and launched large-scale nationwide rallies in an attempt to restore order. Photos show Iranians rallying in support of their government, including a pro-government demonstration in Tehran on January 12, 2026, attended by thousands.
Muhammad Hussain Baqeri, an expert in international affairs, appeared on Geo News’s ‘Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Sath’ program on Monday to provide insight into the situation. He claimed that the protests were primarily aimed at regime change rather than economic grievances alone, citing that opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last Shah, had called for protests on January 8 and 9.
Baqeri estimated that during protests on Thursday and Friday, crowds numbered in the thousands—more than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000—and were largely peaceful early on. However, after 10 p.m., he observed individuals from terrorist organizations emerging from the crowds, armed with military-grade weapons, firing into the air, and setting fires to banks, mosques, and police stations. Despite the unrest, he emphasized that the majority of Iranians do not own guns, and such weapons are generally associated with security or terrorist groups.
Protest-related violence resulted in significant destruction: at least 150 ambulances, 50 mosques, and seven fire engines were burned across Iran. Around 40 banks, police stations, and Red Crescent centers also faced attacks. Baqeri reassured that Iranians do not traditionally burn mosques, underscoring their Muslim identity despite the anger directed at regimes.
In addition, Baqeri reported the arrest of a terrorist affiliated with Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, who claimed to have been trained to shoot to kill, whether targeting security personnel or civilians. The terrorist’s interrogation revealed a plan to produce “dead bodies” to incite U.S. and Israeli intervention, which Baqeri attributes to the recent unrest.
Countermeasures included a massive pro-government rally on Monday in Inqalab and Azadi Squares, where hundreds of thousands of Iranians gathered with Qurans in hand. Baqeri noted that the government’s response to threats from Trump involved warning that Iran would retaliate forcefully if attacked, including possible preemptive actions, with strikes on Israeli and U.S. interests across the region. Tehran warned that any military aggression could escalate into a regional war, with Iran potentially launching ballistic missile attacks on Israel and U.S. military assets within missile range.
Baqeri observed that with about 90 million people, Iran’s landmass exceeds 1.7 million square kilometers, and roughly 15 to 20 million are members of the Revolutionary Guard. He questioned the likelihood of a successful U.S. ground invasion, citing the difficulty of confronting a smaller organization like Hamas and the substantial manpower and territory in Iran, suggesting that President Trump might be hesitant to risk American soldiers’ lives.
Regarding Iran’s internal challenges, Baqeri highlighted growing public frustrations over inflation, a depreciating currency, and high unemployment. Notably, Iran’s parliament recently rejected the government’s budget for the first time in two decades, demanding revisions to align salaries with inflation. A new budget is expected soon, possibly increasing salaries by around 40-45%.
The government is also planning significant economic reforms, especially aiming to stabilize the currency by reducing the gap between multiple exchange rates used for food imports and exports, which have historically fueled corruption. This “major surgery” aims to curb economic instability and corruption, but Baqeri cautioned that managing these reforms would be complex amid Iran’s ongoing economic crises.
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