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On Wednesday, researchers estimated that human-induced climate change was responsible for approximately 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer, based on modeling projections made before official statistics were available. The study, produced rapidly by climate and health experts, aims to link heatwave-related fatalities directly to global warming without waiting for lengthy peer-reviewed publication processes.
These death estimates are projections derived from models used in previous peer-reviewed research, rather than real-time data. The actual recorded death toll during heatwaves is likely significantly underestimated, as hospitals typically report deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory, or other health issues affecting seniors during extreme temperatures.
To assess this summer’s impact, a team from the UK employed climate models to determine that average temperatures in 854 European cities increased by about 2.2°C from June through August due to global warming. Historical data linking high temperatures to increased mortality was used to estimate roughly 24,400 excess deaths in these cities during that period. When compared to a baseline scenario without the 1.3°C temperature rise caused by human fossil fuel emissions, around 70%—or about 16,500 deaths—were attributed to climate change.
This suggests that global warming may have tripled the death toll from heatwaves this summer. The findings, authored by scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, align with earlier research indicating over 47,000 heat-related deaths in Europe during summer 2023. The study highlights that heatwaves are “silent killers,” with even a 2-4°C increase significantly affecting mortality risks, especially among seniors—who comprised over 85% of the estimated excess deaths.
Among cities, Rome faced the highest climate-related death count with an estimated 835 fatalities, followed by Athens with 630, and Paris with 409. The researchers caution that their analysis covers only some parts of Europe, excluding regions like the Balkans, and thus does not represent the continent as a whole.
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