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Qatar accounts for roughly 20% of the world’s LNG supply. If the conflict with Iran persists, the country’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned the Financial Times on Friday that all Gulf energy exporters might have to suspend their shipments within a few weeks if oil prices reach $150 a barrel. Qatar halted its LNG production earlier this week as Iran intensified attacks on Gulf nations in response to Israeli and US strikes.
This LNG output from Qatar is a significant contributor to global supply and is crucial for meeting demand in both Asian and European markets. Kaabi indicated that most Gulf exporters are likely to declare force majeure soon if the situation continues. He warned that a prolonged conflict—lasting several weeks—could slow down global GDP growth and cause energy prices to spike across various industries, leading to shortages and chain reactions in manufacturing.
Even if the fighting ceases immediately, Qatar fears it will take weeks to months to resume normal delivery schedules. Experts have underscored the potential economic fallout worldwide.
Kaabi, who also heads Qatar Energy—the world’s largest LNG producer—mentioned that their North Field expansion project would face delays, potentially affecting planned production timelines slated for mid-2026. He estimates that crude oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz become impassable, disrupting the main Middle Eastern oil export route connecting Gulf producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Gas prices are also expected to rise, possibly reaching $40 per million British thermal units.
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