Modi's Alliance Poised to Dominate Hindi Heartland Vote

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Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate as early results indicate the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is leading in the Bihar state assembly elections in Patna, India, November 14, 2025. — Reuters

– Securing Bihar, the third-most-populous state with nearly 130 million residents, is vital.
– Modi’s coalition is significantly ahead of the 122-seat majority threshold in Bihar.
– The outcome is expected to bolster Modi’s position following a disappointing national election loss in 2024.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling alliance appears poised to maintain power comfortably in Bihar, according to vote tallies on Friday. This victory offers a political boost after last year’s setback at the national level.

Winning Bihar is critical because it is India’s third-largest state by population and ranks fifth in parliamentary representation. Control here enhances influence in the Hindi heartland and can shape national political narratives.

Data from India’s Election Commission shows Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leading in over 170 seats, vastly surpassing the 122 needed for a majority. The TV network NDTV reported a lead in 191 seats, indicating a potential gain of 69 seats from the previous election.

“Bihar’s sentiment is unmistakable!” BJP tweeted on X. “The people demand development—no longer jungle rule. Good governance is the goal!”

This result marks a turnaround for Modi, who lost his parliamentary majority last year and depends on allies to stay in power. Since then, his party has regained ground, winning key state elections.

Analysts highlighted Modi’s recent transfer of approximately $853 million (₹75 billion) to women in Bihar via an employment program as a key factor in the electoral shift. Women in India have increasingly participated in voting over the past decade, with parties actively courting their support. Historically, male voters outnumbered women at polling stations.

Bihar election observer Amitabh Tiwari, who traveled through the state during the two-phase election on November 6 and 11, noted that women voters seem to be tipping the scales in Modi’s favor more than in previous elections.

A VoteVibe survey this week showed Modi’s alliance capturing about 48.5% of the female vote—more than 10 percentage points higher than the main opposition bloc.

Upcoming elections are scheduled for states such as Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu. Currently, the BJP holds power only in Assam among these regions.