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Displaced Palestinians seeking shelter in a tent camp as Israeli forces intensify operations around Gaza City, September 2, 2025. — Reuters
European major powers have recently announced their intention to recognize an independent Palestinian state in the coming weeks. What impact would this have for Palestinians and Israel?
Current Status of Palestinian Statehood
The Palestine Liberation Organization declared a Palestinian state in 1988, which was quickly recognized by many countries, especially in the Global South. Today, 147 out of 193 United Nations member states acknowledge a Palestinian state, with Mexico being the most recent in January 2025.
The United States, a key ally of Israel, has long indicated a willingness to recognize Palestine, but only after successful negotiations between the two sides on a two-state solution. Until recently, Europe maintained a similar stance. Since 2014, negotiations between Israel and Palestinians have been halted.
Palestinian diplomatic missions worldwide, including the UN mission, are managed by the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is recognized internationally as the representative of the Palestinian people. The PA has observer status at the UN but lacks voting rights. Full UN membership for Palestine would require Security Council approval, where the U.S. holds a veto.
The PA, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, operates limited self-rule in parts of the West Bank under agreements with Israel, issuing passports and managing health and education systems. Conversely, Gaza has been controlled by Hamas since 2007, after ousting Abbas’s Fatah party, though the PA still funds many salaries there.
Who Promises to Recognize Palestine and Why?
Countries like Britain, France, Canada, Australia, and Belgium plan to recognize Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly. Britain has indicated it might hold back if Israel makes progress in easing Gaza’s humanitarian crisis and commits to renewed peace efforts.
These declarations aim to pressure Israel to cease its Gaza assault, stop building settlements in the West Bank, and re-engage in peace negotiations. French President Emmanuel Macron, the first Western leader to endorse recognition, stated that this move would be accompanied by reforms by the PA, enhancing governance and credibility for post-conflict Gaza.
What Has Recognition Achieved So Far?
Many consider recognition as symbolic since countries like China, India, Russia, and numerous Arab states have recognized Palestinian independence for decades without significant on-the-ground impact.
Without a seat at the UN or control over borders, Palestine’s ability to conduct bilateral relations is limited. No Palestinian embassies exist, and countries cannot easily send diplomats to Palestinian territories. Israel maintains strict restrictions on trade, investment, and cultural exchanges, with no airports in Palestine. Access to the West Bank is only through Israel or Israeli-controlled borders, and Israel controls all access to Gaza.
Despite this, recognition still holds importance. Recognition could pave the way for strategic partnerships, and countries might revisit their relationships with Israel, for instance by banning products from Israeli settlements in occupied territories, although such measures would likely only have a symbolic economic impact.
Reactions from Israel and the U.S.
Israel has responded angrily to recognition moves, accusing them of rewarding Hamas for its October 2023 attacks that triggered the latest Gaza conflict. Israel’s government, now the most far-right in its history, including parties opposed to Palestinian independence, insists it will never relinquish control over Gaza or the West Bank. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has affirmed that Israel will maintain ultimate security authority in these areas.
The U.S. strongly opposes recognition efforts by European allies, responding with sanctions on Palestinian officials, including visa bans to prevent Abbas and others from attending the UN General Assembly in New York.
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