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A de facto division of Gaza appears to be taking shape between an area under Israeli control and another increasingly isolated from the rest of the territory, with multiple sources indicating that efforts to push forward US President Donald Trump’s peace plan are stalling beyond a temporary ceasefire.
Six European officials familiar with the implementation efforts told Reuters that progress has effectively come to a halt, suggesting that reconstruction might be confined solely to the part of Gaza under Israeli control, potentially resulting in decades-long separation.
Since October 10, Israel has held control over roughly 53% of Gaza’s land, including most agricultural areas, Rafah in the south, parts of Gaza City, and other urban zones.
The remaining Gaza Strip, housing nearly two million residents, remains largely crowded with people living in makeshift tents amid the debris of destroyed neighborhoods, seen in drone footage from November showing significant destruction in northeastern Gaza City — a result of Israel’s final assault prior to the ceasefire after months of bombardment. The area is now split between Israeli and Hamas authority.
The upcoming phase of the plan envisages Israel withdrawing further from the “yellow line” agreed upon in Trump’s framework, establishing a transitional governing body for Gaza, deploying a multinational security force to replace Israeli troops, disarming Hamas, and initiating rebuilding efforts. However, no set timelines or detailed procedures for these actions have been provided. Meanwhile, disagreements persist: Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel opposes Palestinian Authority involvement, and the future size and role of the multinational force remain unclear.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stated at a Manama security conference that negotiations are ongoing, emphasizing a shared desire among all parties to conclude the conflict but questioning how to make that happen. Without strong U.S. intervention to break this deadlock, the “yellow line” may remain an enduring border, as per estimates from 18 sources, including the six European officials and a former U.S. diplomat familiar with the talks.
The U.S. has drafted a United Nations Security Council resolution proposing a two-year mandate for the multinational force and transitional governance. Nonetheless, few governments are eager to commit troops, especially if responsibilities extend beyond peacekeeping and risk direct fights with Hamas or other Palestinian factions. European and Arab nations are particularly reluctant to participate under such conditions.
Both Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner have indicated that reconstruction aid could flow into the Israeli-controlled section despite stalled negotiations, with plans to set up model zones for some Gaza residents. This piecemeal approach suggests that the divisions on the ground might become more entrenched, according to Michael Wahid Hanna of the International Crisis Group.
A State Department spokesperson acknowledged significant progress but declined to clarify whether reconstruction efforts would be limited geographically. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has committed not to re-occupy Gaza, even as some far-right members push for re-establishing settlements there–a move he opposes, preferring to maintain a border buffer zone to prevent Hamas attacks.
Israeli forces have marked the withdrawal line with large yellow concrete blocks and are constructing infrastructure on Gaza’s side of this line, including fortified outposts like the one in Shejaiya neighborhood, where recent satellite images reveal bulldozed earth and fresh paving, forming strategic vantage points.
Israel’s military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani expressed readiness to move further once Hamas disarms and an international security force is operational. Israel accuses Hamas of stalling the partial disarmament process, even as the group has released its last 20 living hostages and remains holds the bodies of four others.
In Gaza, Hamas is reasserting control by providing local police and civil workers to administer security and civil functions, including guarding food stalls and clearing debris with heavy equipment. Hamas leader Hazem Qassem stated that the group is prepared to transfer authority to a technocratic Palestinian entity to enable reconstruction, emphasizing the need for equal development across all Gaza regions.
Discussions are also ongoing about whether Hamas could decommission weapons under international supervision instead of surrendering them to Israel or a foreign peacekeeping force. Many European and Arab nations support the idea of the Palestinian Authority (PA), based in the West Bank, returning to Gaza alongside the multinational force to take over from Hamas. However, Israel opposes PA involvement, wary of strengthening the existing Palestinian government.
Without significant shifts in Hamas’ or Israel’s positions or pressure from the U.S., most European officials believe Trump’s plan is unlikely to progress beyond its initial ceasefire phase. Britain’s Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper underscored that Gaza should not remain in limbo.
Residents of Gaza City, like 62-year-old Salah Abu Amr, express concerns about the practicality of reconstruction within a divided territory, questioning whether Israel will permit movement into the area or if families will be split further.
Funding remains uncertain for rebuilding Gaza under Israeli authority, as Gulf nations are reluctant to invest without political progress toward Palestinian statehood, which Israel resists. The total estimated cost to rebuild Gaza exceeds $70 billion. Such fragmentation could further undermine Palestinian aspirations and worsen the humanitarian crisis, leaving residents heavily dependent on aid and lacking adequate shelter.
Jordan’s Safadi cautioned against Gaza’s division, emphasizing that the territory is indivisible and part of occupied Palestinian lands. Palestinian Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian Shahin reiterated the Palestinian Authority’s readiness to assume full sovereignty and responsibilities over Gaza, asserting that sustainable stability and reconstruction require political independence and unified governance.
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