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LONDON: The Gates Foundation reports that approximately 200,000 more children are expected to die before reaching age five this year compared to 2024, due to reductions in international aid that threaten decades of progress. This increase would be the first uptick in preventable child deaths this century, rising from an estimated 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025. Child mortality rates have been cut in half since 2000.
“For years, we’ve steadily advanced in saving children’s lives. However, mounting challenges are now causing that progress to regress,” stated Bill Gates, chair of the Gates Foundation, in the foreword of its annual Goalkeepers report.
The report, which tracks progress toward the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals on poverty alleviation and health improvements, was delayed this year due to uncertainties surrounding global health funding. While aid reductions began with the U.S. earlier this year, they have since extended to other major donors like the UK and Germany. Overall, global health development assistance decreased by nearly 27% compared to 2024.
Gates highlighted that these funding cuts are a primary reason behind the reversal in child mortality progress, compounded by other factors like rising national debts and fragile health infrastructure. Earlier this year, Gates warned that ongoing aid reductions could result in an additional 12 to 16 million child deaths by 2045, contingent on future funding levels. Currently, the death toll for this year may match the 2023 figures, the latest data available from the World Health Organization.
The projections are based on models developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at Washington University. Gates called on governments and individuals to prioritize innovative tools along with proven strategies such as vaccination campaigns and investments in primary healthcare to improve child health outcomes.
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