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In 2025, the Earth experienced its third hottest year on record, continuing a trend of extreme heat, with no signs of relief predicted for 2026, according to researchers in the U.S. and European climate monitors. Over the past eleven years, each has set new temperature records, with 2024 ranking as the hottest and 2023 coming in second. For the first time, average global temperatures have surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for three consecutive years, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service and Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization.
The significant temperature rise from 2023 through 2025 indicates an accelerating pace of global warming. Berkeley Earth’s separate report emphasizes that the recent spike is extraordinary and suggests that the Earth’s warming rate is speeding up. The long-standing goal set by the 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C, with efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C—an objective scientists agree is critical to avoiding the severest impacts of climate change.
UN Secretary Antonio Guterres warned in October that surpassing the 1.5°C threshold appears unavoidable but stressed that immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit the duration of this overshoot. According to Copernicus, this limit could be reached as early as the end of this decade—more than a decade earlier than previously forecast.
However, recent setbacks in climate action, such as President Donald Trump’s announced withdrawal from the United States from the UN climate treaty, threaten progress. Last year’s temperatures were about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, only slightly below the record of 1.6°C set in 2024, following 2023’s 1.6°C. Nearly 770 million people experienced their warmest recorded years, while no region recorded its coldest annual average, Berkeley Earth reports. The Antarctic recorded its warmest year on record, with the Arctic ranking as the second hottest.
A recent AFP analysis highlighted that regions like Central Asia, the Sahel, and northern Europe also faced their hottest years ever in 2025. Both Berkeley and Copernicus indicate that 2026 is unlikely to break this trend. If an El Niño event occurs this year, it could push global temperatures to new records, as suggested by Carlo Buontempo of Copernicus. He emphasizes that temperature rises are inevitable and that the overall direction is clear, regardless of whether 2026, 2027, or 2028 becomes the new warmest year. Berkeley Earth projects 2026 to be roughly the fourth-warmest year since 1850.
Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—a primary driver of climate change—are stalling in many developed nations. The Rhodium Group reports that U.S. emissions increased last year after two years of decline, fueled by colder winters and a surge in energy demand from technological advancements like AI. Meanwhile, reductions in emissions have slowed in Germany and France. Berkeley Earth’s chief scientist noted that the recent temperature spike may be influenced not only by greenhouse gases but also by other amplified factors. For instance, international regulations reducing sulfur in ship fuel since 2020 may have inadvertently contributed to warming by decreasing aerosols that reflect sunlight away from the Earth.
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