Chinese Chief Economists’ Confidence Falls in October, Yicai Survey Reveals

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Confidence in China’s economic outlook has slightly weakened this month but remains above the growth threshold, according to recent survey results. The Chief Economists Confidence Index for October stands at 50.3, a slight decrease from 50.6 in September, marking the third consecutive month it stays above the critical 50 mark. A panel of 16 top economists based in China participated in the poll.

These economists anticipate the Chinese economy will experience moderate growth in the fourth quarter, with an average forecast for full-year GDP expansion at 4.8 percent. They expect the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, beginning next year, to target an average annual GDP growth rate of between 4.5 and 5 percent from 2026 through 2030, supporting efforts to reach long-term goals set for 2035.

For September, the economists project the consumer price index (CPI) will have decreased by 0.2 percent compared to the previous year, a smaller decline than August’s official 0.4 percent drop. They foresee producer prices falling by 2.3 percent, improving from August’s 2.9 percent decrease.

Fixed-asset investment in the first nine months of the year is expected to have remained flat compared to the same period last year, contrasting with a 0.5 percent growth recorded in the first eight months. Retail sales growth likely slowed to 3.1 percent last month from 3.4 percent in August, while industrial value-added output probably increased by 5.2 percent, slightly less than the previous month.

The trade surplus is expected to have narrowed to around $96.8 billion from $102.3 billion. On the financial front, the survey indicates optimism, with the average forecast for new yuan-denominated loans at CNY1.548 trillion (approximately USD217.1 billion) and for total social financing at CNY3.5 trillion in September, both significantly higher than August’s official figures.

The economists do not foresee any adjustments to the loan prime rate or the reserve requirement ratio this month. As of September 30, the yuan’s central parity rate against the dollar was fixed at 7.1055, and projections suggest it will remain relatively stable around 7.1 by month’s end.