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On April 9, chief economists surveyed remained optimistic about China’s economy for the ninth consecutive month in April. They believe the country’s economy had a strong start in the first quarter, despite ongoing external uncertainties.
The Economic Confidence Index for this month was recorded at 50.3, slightly down from 50.5 in March, 50.2 in February, and 50.3 in January. A reading above 50 signals positive sentiment among economists.
The economists predict China’s GDP grew by approximately 4.8% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, surpassing the 4.5% growth seen in the fourth quarter of the previous year. They project an overall annual GDP growth of 4.7%.
Rising oil prices driven by instability in the Middle East have increased costs for industrial companies, intensifying operational pressures. Experts called for targeted policies, including subsidies and increased financial liquidity, to assist businesses, especially those hit hardest by the situation.
The consumer price index is expected to have increased by 1.2% last month from a year earlier, slowing from February’s 1.3% growth. Meanwhile, the producer price index likely rose by 0.4%, reversing February’s 0.9% decline.
Retail sales growth is projected at 2.5% in March compared to the same month last year, down from February’s 2.9% increase. Fixed asset investment growth was forecast to be around 2% for March, a slight increase from 1.8% in the previous two months. However, industrial production growth in March is expected to have slowed to 5.9% from 6.3% in February.
China’s trade surplus was estimated at around USD 111.63 billion in March, a significant decrease from USD 213.6 billion reported in February. Seasonal factors are expected to have influenced these figures positively compared to February.
The forecast for new yuan-denominated loans in March stands at CNY 3.26 trillion (USD 476.3 billion), with total financing to the real economy around CNY 5.5 trillion. M2 money supply is predicted to have expanded by 9% in March, unchanged from the previous month.
Economists do not anticipate any adjustments to the loan prime rate or the reserve requirement ratio this month. As of March 31, the central bank set the yuan’s parity rate against the US dollar at 6.9194. They expect it to remain stable throughout April, with an average rate of 6.9. Additionally, the yuan is projected to strengthen to about 6.8 against the dollar by year-end.
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