Concerns Rise in India and Bangladesh Over China’s Mega-Dam Project

China has launched what it claims will be the largest hydropower project in the world, a staggering $170 billion initiative that has the potential to generate enough electricity annually to power the entire United Kingdom.

This new endeavor overshadows the currently largest project, the Three Gorges Dam, leading to a surge in Chinese construction and engineering stocks following the announcement by Premier Li Qiang over the weekend.

Beijing sees this project as a source of clean energy, job creation, and an economic boost amid a slow recovery. However, it raises concerns among downstream neighbors about water security since the Yarlung Zangbo River transforms into the Brahmaputra as it flows through India and Bangladesh, serving as a crucial resource for millions.

What did China formally approve?

The ambitious plan consists of five dams spanning a 31-mile stretch where the river descends nearly 6,600 feet from the Tibetan Plateau. The first electricity generation is expected in the early to mid-2030s. However, details about the construction process and further specifics about costs remain limited.

Why are neighboring countries worried?

The scarcity of information has heightened fears in India and Bangladesh regarding water availability, as both countries rely on the Brahmaputra for irrigation, energy generation, and drinking water.

The chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian state bordering China, expressed concerns earlier this year that the dam could reduce water flow by up to 80% in the region while also risking flooding in areas downstream, such as Assam.

Moreover, the dam’s construction will likely reduce sediment reaching downstream areas, an important component for maintaining agricultural productivity, according to Michael Steckler, a professor at Columbia University.

Historical tensions exist in this region, with India and China having fought a border war in the 1960s. The uncertainty surrounding the project has added fuel to speculation that China might exploit the dam to restrict water flow in the event of another conflict, says Sayanangshu Modak, a specialist in India-China water dynamics at the University of Arizona.

China’s foreign ministry responded by affirming that the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project falls under its sovereign affairs, claiming it would not only produce clean energy but also aid in flood management.

Additionally, the ministry asserted that China has engaged in necessary discussions with downstream nations regarding hydrological data, flood control, and disaster mitigation strategies related to the Yarlung Zangbo project.

Requests for comments from India’s foreign and water ministries went unanswered.

Will it restrict water access for India?

Concerns about the dam’s impact on downstream water flow may be exaggerated, as the majority of the Brahmaputra’s water comes from monsoon rains generated south of the Himalayas rather than from China, according to Modak.

He further noted that the Chinese project is designed as a “run of the river” hydropower scheme, meaning that water will be allowed to flow naturally along the river’s conventional path.

India is also proposing two dams on the Siang River, which is the local name for the Yarlung Zangbo. One of these, an 11.5-gigawatt project in Arunachal Pradesh, is set to be India’s largest if constructed.

These proposals are partly intended to assert India’s claims to the river and strengthen its position should China ever attempt to divert the water, Modak added.

“If India can demonstrate it has been utilizing the waters, China cannot unilaterally redirect them,” he explained.

Controversy is nothing new

Disputes over dams and water security are perennial issues. For instance, Pakistan has accused India of weaponizing shared water resources in Jammu and Kashmir after New Delhi suspended its engagement in the Indus Waters Treaty, which governs water sharing between the two countries.

In Egypt, a high-ranking politician was caught on camera suggesting the bombing of a contentious dam on the Nile River amid an ongoing dispute over the project led by Ethiopia.

Risks from earthquakes and extreme weather

The dam will be situated in a seismically active region known for landslides, glacial lake floods, and severe storms. Experts have expressed safety concerns in light of a recent destructive earthquake in Tibet.

Additionally, a smaller hydropower facility on a nearby tributary has faced limitations in construction due to engineering challenges posed by the high-altitude and extreme winter conditions.