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A man runs with an umbrella while crossing a busy street during rain in Kolkata, India. — Reuters/File
The Indian government announced on Tuesday that the country is expected to experience above-average monsoon rains for the second consecutive year in 2025. This projection, consistent with forecasts made in April, raises hopes for increased agricultural output and economic growth.
Enhanced rainfall is anticipated to lower food prices, keep inflation within acceptable limits set by the central bank, and enable India, the world’s largest exporter of rice, to increase its shipments of this staple food.
M. Ravichandran, the Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, reported that monsoon rainfall is expected to reach 106% of the long-term average this year. The India Meteorological Department defines average rainfall as being between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) during the monsoon season from June to September.
The monsoon is crucial for agriculture in India, providing nearly 70% of the rainfall necessary for irrigating crops and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers. With almost half of the country’s agricultural land lacking irrigation, farmers rely heavily on the rains from June to September to cultivate various crops.
According to Ravichandran, areas in central and southern India are likely to experience above-average rainfall, while the southwestern regions can expect average levels. Meanwhile, northeastern states may receive below-average rainfall.
In June, the country is forecasted to receive 108% of the long-term average rainfall, with the monsoon typically arriving at the southern tip of Kerala around June 1. This year, it hit Kerala’s coast on Saturday—eight days earlier than usual—marking its earliest arrival in 16 years. Following its arrival in Kerala, the monsoon rapidly spread across much of the western coastline, reaching the financial hub of Mumbai nearly two weeks ahead of the typical schedule.
The prediction of above-average rainfall is likely to encourage greater planting of water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane, as noted by a trader from New Delhi associated with a global trading firm. The dealer mentioned, "Soil moisture levels are already better this year due to increased pre-monsoon rainfall. Now, the IMD’s forecast of surplus rainfall will boost farmers’ confidence."
India leads the world in rice and onion exports and is the second-largest producer of sugar. After experiencing surplus rainfall in 2024, India lifted restrictions on rice and onion exports, permitting limited sugar exports of 1 million tons.
If the rains remain favorable throughout the season, there could be an increase in rice and sugar crops this year, which might lead to higher exports, according to a New Delhi trader.
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