Skepticism Surrounds ‘Hints’ of Life on Distant Planet

Last month, astronomers excitedly revealed they might have found one of the strongest indicators of extraterrestrial life on a remote planet, sparking hope that humanity could soon discover we’re not alone in the cosmos.

However, several recent studies analyzing the same data have concluded that the evidence isn’t strong enough to make such bold claims, with one scientist suggesting that the researchers may have acted prematurely.

The discussion centers on the planet K2-18b, located 124 light-years away in the Leo constellation.

This planet is thought to orbit at the right distance from its star to allow for the presence of liquid water, making it a key target in the hunt for life beyond Earth.

Recently, astronomers using the James Webb Space Telescope made headlines by reporting the possibility of detecting the chemicals dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) on K2-18b.

These substances are produced solely by life forms like marine algae on Earth, leading to their classification as potential “biosignatures” indicating the presence of life.

Led by Nikku Madhusudhan from Cambridge University, the team expressed caution about the “hints” of biosignature detection, noting that they were not asserting a definitive discovery.

The results reached a three-sigma level of statistical significance, which still leaves a three in a thousand chance that the findings could be a coincidence, according to Madhusudhan’s comments at the time.

Biosignatures ‘Disappear’

Two of Madhusudhan’s former students, Luis Welbanks of Arizona State University and Matthew Nixon of the University of Maryland, have since reanalyzed the original data.

Using alternate statistical models, they found that “claims of potential biosignature detection disappear,” according to their preprint study released online late last month.

In one analysis, Welbanks and colleagues expanded the range of possible chemicals to 90 from the initial 20.

Over 50 chemicals showed potential signals, Welbanks reported to AFP.

“When you find signals for everything, did you really find anything?” he posed.

They are not claiming that DMS isn’t present on the planet, just that further observations are necessary, Welbanks clarified.

Healthy Scientific Debate

Madhusudhan welcomed the ongoing discussion, reinforcing that maintaining an open mind is a vital part of the scientific process.

“These kinds of arguments are constructive,” he told AFP.

His team recently released a new preprint study that raised the count of potential chemicals to 650.

Among the most “promising” chemicals they identified were DMS, though not DMDS, which had been a major part of the previous announcement. The other two identified substances were diethyl sulfide and methyl acrylonitrile, the latter being toxic.

Madhusudhan acknowledged that these lesser-known chemicals are probably not “realistic molecules” for a planet like K2-18b.

Welbanks noted that “in just a month — without any new data, models, or lab results — the entire analysis shifted.”

Closer Than Ever

Astronomers observe distant exoplanets as they transit in front of their stars, allowing for analysis of how molecules obstruct various wavelengths of light passing through their atmospheres.

Recently, a paper led by Rafael Luque at the University of Chicago combined the Webb’s near-infrared and mid-infrared observations of K2-18b, finding “no statistical significance for DMS or DMDS.”

Another earlier study by Oxford astrophysicist Jake Taylor, utilizing a basic statistical test, also failed to find strong evidence for any biosignatures.

Madhusudhan dismissed that latter research, arguing that it didn’t take into account the complexities of physical phenomena.

He expressed his continued confidence in his team’s findings, stating he felt “just as assured” about the research as he did a month ago.

Additional data concerning K2-18b will be collected over the next year, providing a clearer picture, Madhusudhan added.

Even if the planet is confirmed to have DMS, it doesn’t necessarily indicate life; the chemical has also been found on lifeless asteroids.

Nevertheless, many researchers believe that space telescopes may one day gather enough data to identify alien life from a distance.

“We are closer than we’ve ever been” to such a revelation, Welbanks remarked.

“However, we must adhere to established frameworks and build our case reliably instead of rushing to conclusions, as seen in this instance,” Nixon emphasized.