India Considers Reducing Pakistan’s Water Supply via Indus Project

• India is exploring plans to expand the canal on the Chenab River allocated to Pakistan.
• Delhi is evaluating other projects that may decrease water flow to Pakistan.
• India has halted its involvement in the Indus Waters Treaty following a Kashmir attack.

In response to a deadly attack on tourists in April, which New Delhi attributes to Islamabad, India is contemplating significantly increasing its water extraction from a crucial river that supplies farms in Pakistan. This move is perceived as a retaliatory measure, as indicated by sources familiar with the situation.

India suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates the use of the Indus river system, soon after a tragic incident in which 26 civilians were killed in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

Pakistan has refuted any involvement in the attack; however, the treaty has not been reinstated, even after both nuclear-armed nations agreed to a ceasefire last week, following some of the most severe hostilities between them in decades.

Following the April 22 attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi directed his officials to accelerate plans for projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers—waterways primarily designated for Pakistan’s usage, as reported by several sources.

One major project under consideration aims to double the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab to 120 kilometers, allowing it to flow from India into Pakistan’s agricultural region of Punjab. The canal, constructed in the 19th century, predates the treaty.

While India is authorized to extract a limited volume of water from the Chenab for irrigation, the proposed canal expansion could enable it to divert 150 cubic meters of water per second, a significant increase from the current 40 cubic meters, as per discussions and documents reviewed by sources.

The specifics of India’s plans for the Ranbir Canal have not been disclosed before; conversations began last month and are ongoing despite the recent ceasefire, according to sources involved in the discussions.

The Indian ministries overseeing water and foreign affairs, along with Modi’s office, have not responded to inquiries from Reuters. NHPC, the Indian hydropower corporation managing various projects within the Indus system, also did not comment.

This week, Modi proclaimed in a passionate address that “water and blood cannot flow together,” without mentioning the treaty. Indian foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal commented that India would maintain the treaty in abeyance until Pakistan renounces its support for cross-border terrorism decisively.

Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar stated that Islamabad has communicated with India to assert that suspending the treaty is unlawful and that they consider it still valid.

After India announced the suspension of the treaty, Islamabad asserted that any effort to halt or redirect the flow of water belonging to Pakistan would be viewed as an “act of war.”

Around 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural lands rely on the Indus river system, which also supports nearly all hydropower projects in the country serving approximately 250 million people.

Water security expert David Michel of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington warned that any attempts by India to construct dams, canals, or other infrastructure to significantly divert water from the Indus system to India would take years to implement. However, an early taste of the pressures Pakistan may face was seen in early May, when water at a key intake point dropped by as much as 90% after India commenced maintenance work on some Indus projects.

Potential Consequences

The Indus river system traverses some of the world’s most politically volatile regions, starting near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet and winding through northern India and eastern and southeastern Pakistan before flowing into the Arabian Sea.

The treaty is widely regarded as one of the world’s most effective water-sharing agreements, having endured several major conflicts and ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan.

Islamabad has consistently opposed numerous projects initiated by India on the Indus system, while New Delhi has sought to renegotiate the treaty since 2023, citing population growth and increasing demand for clean hydropower.

The treaty primarily restricts India to developing low-impact hydropower projects on the three major rivers allocated to Pakistan, while India retains free access to three other rivers—the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi tributaries.

In addition to the Ranbir Canal expansion, India is also contemplating projects that are likely to diminish water flow into Pakistan from the rivers designated for that country, as indicated by two government documents reviewed by Reuters and discussions with several informed individuals.

One internal document suggests that water from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers could be reallocated into rivers across three northern Indian states. This document, which had not been reported earlier, was prepared for talks with officials from the power ministry following the April attack.

Delhi has compiled a list of hydropower initiatives in its Jammu and Kashmir territory, aiming to boost its capacity from 3,360 megawatts to 12,000 megawatts. There is also speculation about dams capable of storing significant water volumes—a first for India within the Indus river system as per insights from two sources familiar with the matter.

At least five potential storage projects have been identified, four of which are situated along the tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, according to documentation from the power ministry.

Political Implications

Happymon Jacob, an international relations scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, posits that India’s renewed focus on the Indus Waters Treaty aims to exert pressure on Pakistan regarding Kashmir.

“Following the latest conflict, Delhi may decline to engage in any discussions about Kashmir with Pakistan,” he noted. “Not only has India progressively narrowed the scope of bilateral dialogues, but it has also restricted the agenda, primarily focusing on specific issues such as the IWT.”

Pakistan has signaled it is preparing to take legal action in several international forums, including the World Bank, which facilitated the treaty, as well as the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

“Water should not be weaponized,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters. “We do not want to consider any scenario that does not involve the restoration of this treaty.”

Michel, the U.S.-based water expert, pointed out that concerns regarding the treaty’s suspension extend beyond Islamabad.

“As competition escalates across the region, many Indian analysts worry that Delhi’s weaponization of water against Islamabad could potentially embolden Beijing to adopt a similar strategy against India,” he observed.