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Online Rumors Impacting Travel to Japan
HONG KONG: Recently, unfounded online rumors suggesting an imminent major earthquake in Japan have negatively affected travel agencies and airlines, with many in Hong Kong expressing hesitance about traveling. In 2024, residents from Hong Kong made approximately 2.7 million trips to Japan.
Although predicting earthquakes is inherently uncertain, anxiety-inducing speculation has gained traction among Hong Kong residents. Some misinformation has referenced a 2021 manga that supposedly forecasts a significant disaster in July 2025 based on the author’s dream. Other social media posts have provided varying predictions, and a Facebook group dedicated to forecasting disasters in Japan has amassed over 250,000 members, predominantly from Hong Kong and Taiwan.
"The fear surrounding these earthquake predictions has drastically altered our customers’ preferences," said Frankie Chow, the head of CLS Holiday, a travel agency in Hong Kong. He reported that inquiries about trips to Japan plummeted by 70-80% in March and April compared to the previous year. “I’ve never seen this kind of response before,” he added, noting that his booking site, Flyagain.la, experienced similar trends. While some travelers opted for different destinations, others simply "didn’t dare to travel," Chow explained.
In Japan, minor to moderate earthquakes are frequent due to stringent building regulations that minimize damage. However, the nation has experienced devastating events, including the major 2011 earthquake that triggered a tsunami, resulting in nearly 18,500 people dead or missing and a catastrophic nuclear accident at Fukushima.
Unlike Japan, earthquakes are very rare in Hong Kong, yet rumors can easily unsettle locals.
Clarification from Authorities
In response to rising concerns, Tokyo’s Cabinet Office recently posted on social media platform X, stating, "Currently, it is not possible to predict earthquakes by specific dates or locations based on scientific knowledge." A Cabinet official confirmed that this post was part of routine efforts to inform the public about earthquake risks, particularly following an updated forecast from a government panel in January regarding a "megaquake."
The panel had estimated a 75-82% chance of a significant earthquake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years. A subsequent estimate from March projected that a megaquake could lead to 298,000 fatalities in Japan. Despite being a routine update, this figure has intensified fears among potential tourists.
One viral YouTube video featuring a feng shui master advising against traveling to Japan has garnered over 100,000 views.
Don Hon, a 32-year-old social worker in Hong Kong, remains skeptical of the online claims; however, he admits they have affected his travel plans. "I’ll take precautions and hold off on planning a trip to Japan," he said, adding he might suggest alternative destinations if a friend proposed visiting in July.
Travel Impacts
Greater Bay Airlines, based in Hong Kong, has responded to the decline in demand by scaling back flights to Tokushima in southern Japan. A local tourism official mentioned, "They reported a swift decrease in bookings amid rumors about a significant quake and tsunami this summer." From May 12 to October 25, weekly round-trip flights will drop from three to two. The airline is also reducing services to Sendai in the Miyagi region.
Miyagi’s governor, Yoshihiro Murai, reassured travelers that "there’s no reason to worry," emphasizing that locals are not overly concerned. However, he acknowledged that misinformation on social media could severely affect tourism.
According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, the number of visitors from Hong Kong fell to 208,400 in March, marking a nearly 10% year-on-year decrease—partly attributed to Easter holidays falling in mid-April this year.
In contrast, EGL Tours reported stable travel numbers to Japan, though recent hotel bookings have shown a drop among Hong Kong guests versus international travelers. "If these predictions do not materialize, people will eventually realize the truth," said Steve Huen Kwok-chuen, the executive director of EGL Tours.
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