Analyzing the IAF’s Aircraft Accident Statistics

ISLAMABAD: Increased tensions between Pakistan and India following the deadly Pahalga attack have reignited war rhetoric in India, placing the Indian armed forces under scrutiny, as reported by The News on Sunday.

Given the historical backdrop of Pakistan-India conflicts, notably involving the downing of an Indian Air Force (IAF) MIG-21 and the capture of pilot Abhinandan Varthaman by Pakistan, the IAF is back in the spotlight.

According to official reports, the IAF has lost a staggering 2,374 aircraft due to crashes as of September 2023, comprising 1,126 fighter jets and 1,248 non-fighter aircraft. This also includes 229 trainer planes and 196 helicopters, leading to the tragic loss of 1,305 skilled pilots.

Experts from India have expressed concern, asserting that a significant shortcoming in the country’s defense preparedness lies in the IAF’s fleet of combat aircraft.

The number of combat aircraft lost exceeds 50 squadrons. Some losses occurred during wars India fought against Pakistan in 1947-48, 1965, and 1971, with further losses during the Kargil conflict in 1999.

In the 1962 War against China, the IAF refrained from conducting combat operations. During the 1965 War, it suffered the loss of 59 aircraft on the ground, many of which fell victim to pre-emptive strikes by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in Pathankot and Kalaikunda, highlighting a significant failure in Indian intelligence and preparedness. The IAF’s own documentation from the 1965 War indicated that it “suffered disproportionately higher losses” compared to the PAF.

A contributing factor to these losses was that the IAF was operating outdated aircraft, while the PAF was equipped with the most advanced U.S. fighters in Asia. Of all the IAF’s casualties, only 143 aircraft — approximately one in eight — were lost in actual combat situations.

An audit report titled “Aircraft Accidents in the IAF, 2002,” released by the Public Accounts Committee, indicated that the accident rate for IAF aircraft per 10,000 flight hours varied between “0.89 and 1.52 from 1991 to 1997”; for fighter jets specifically, it was “between 1.89 and 3.53”; and for MIG-21 variants, “between 2.29 and 3.99.”

In comparison, the accident rates for fighter aircraft in the U.S. Air Force were significantly lower: 0.29 in the 1990s, 0.15 in the 2000s, and 0.1 from 2010 to 2018. A 1982 parliamentary debate raised alarms over the IAF, noting that the number of aircraft lost in accidents in just two years was nearly equivalent to those lost throughout the entire 1971 War.

To address these issues, several committees have since periodically assessed the situation. They identified three primary causes for these accidents: human error, technical faults, and adverse environmental conditions, such as rough weather and bird strikes.

Technical issues often stemmed from inadequate maintenance and a lack of spare parts, particularly for MiG variants following the fall of the Soviet Union. Additionally, the age of aircraft like the decades-old MiG-21s, often derisively referred to as “flying coffins” or “widow makers,” has contributed to this problem. Reports indicate that around half of the IAF’s crashes can be attributed to human mistakes.

There have been noted deficiencies in basic pilot training and persistent issues upgrading the HPT-32 Stage-1 trainer aircraft used for fundamental flying education. The alarming frequency of trainer aircraft crashes during the 1980s and 1990s resulted in significant fatalities, leading to the tragic loss of both the trainer and the trainee pilots. The IAF eventually grounded the HPT-32 after 19 pilots died in 17 accidents spanning 23 years of service.