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When Will the World’s Largest Countries Experience Population Peaks?
1. Russia – 149 Million (Peak Reached in 1991)
Russia’s population hit its highest point back in 1991 with approximately 149 million residents. Since then, demographic declines, birth rate drops, and emigration have contributed to a steady decrease in population. Although policies encouraging higher birth rates have been attempted, the trend continues to challenge Russia’s demographic stability.
2. Japan – 128 Million (Peak Achieved in 2010)
Japan reached its population peak in 2010 at about 128 million, but since then, the population has been in steady decline due to low birth rates, aging citizens, and limited immigration. Experts warn that Japan could see its population fall below 100 million in the next decade, challenging economic growth and social services.
3. Italy – 61 Million (Population Peak in 2014)
Italy’s population peaked in 2014 at around 61 million. Like many European nations, Italy struggles with low fertility rates and an aging population, leading to a natural decrease. The country’s demographic decline poses significant challenges to its economy and healthcare system.
4. South Korea – 52 Million (Reached Peak in 2020)
South Korea’s population peaked in 2020 at approximately 52 million. The country faces one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, plunging into a phase of population decline that could have long-term socio-economic impacts, such as shrinking workforce and increased elder care needs.
5. China – 1.4 Billion (Peaked in 2021)
China, once the world’s most populous nation, reached its population apex at about 1.4 billion in 2021. Following decades of strict birth control policies, the country now faces a declining birth rate and aging population, prompting policy shifts to promote higher fertility.
Image Source: UN World Population Prospects (2025)
6. Thailand – 72 Million (Population Peak in 2022)
Thailand’s population peaked at approximately 72 million in 2022. The trend reflects global patterns of declining fertility and aging demographics, which could lead to a shrinking labor force unless significant immigration policies are implemented.
7. Spain – 48 Million (Peak in 2023)
Spain hit its population high in 2023 with roughly 48 million residents. The decline is attributed to low birth rates, economic factors, and emigration of young adults seeking opportunities elsewhere, all of which threaten long-term population stability.
8. Germany – 85 Million (Current Population in 2024)
Germany’s population stood at about 85 million in 2024. While immigration has helped mitigate some declines, demographic aging remains a critical concern, with projections indicating further decline in the coming decades if birth rates remain low.
9. Brazil – 219 Million (Expected Peak in 2042)
Brazil’s population is projected to peak around 2042 at roughly 219 million. The country currently boasts a relatively stable growth rate, but urbanization and fertility rates are slowly declining, indicating ongoing demographic shifts.
10. Turkey – 91 Million (Projected Peak in 2047)
Turkey is expected to reach its population peak at approximately 91 million in 2047. Favorable fertility rates and strategic migration policies could influence the overall trajectory beyond that point.
11. France – 68 Million (Projected Peak in 2048)
France’s population is forecasted to max out around 68 million in 2048. The country’s proactive policies on family support and immigration are key factors impacting its demographic outlook.
12. Vietnam – 110 Million (Expected Peak in 2049)
Vietnam’s population is projected to peak at about 110 million by 2049. Population growth remains steady due to relatively high fertility compared to regional neighbors, although signs of slowdown are emerging.
13. Ghana – 59 Million (Expected Peak in 2049)
Ghana’s population is forecasted to reach 59 million by 2049, fueled by sustained high fertility rates and decreasing mortality. The country anticipates continued demographic expansion into the mid-century.
14. Colombia – 59 Million (Projected Peak in 2050)
Colombia is likely to reach its population peak of about 59 million around 2050. Urbanization and improved healthcare contribute to long-term growth prospects, although gradual stabilization is expected.
15. Argentina – 48 Million (Projected in 2050)
Argentina’s population is tentatively set to peak at 48 million by 2050. Ongoing economic challenges and fertility trends will influence the demographic landscape moving forward.
16. Iran – 102 Million (Peak Expected in 2053)
Iran’s population could reach 102 million by 2053, with fertility rates fluctuating over recent years. The government continues to explore policies to encourage higher birth rates amid regional uncertainties.
17. Philippines – 135 Million (Peak in 2057)
The Philippines is projected to peak at approximately 135 million residents in 2057. A combination of improving healthcare and birth rates sustains population growth, although it is nearing its inflection point.
18. Mexico – 150 Million (Expected Peak in 2058)
Mexico is forecast to reach around 150 million in 2058. Urban migration and social policies will influence the shape of population growth in the coming decades.
19. Morocco – 44 Million (Projected Peak in 2058)
Morocco’s population is expected to hit 44 million by 2058, with stable growth driven by fertility rates higher than many North African neighbors.
20. Indonesia – 323 Million (Projected Peak in 2058)
Indonesia’s vibrant demographic trend suggests it will reach roughly 323 million in 2058, making it the largest Muslim-majority country and one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
21. India – 1.7 Billion (Projected Peak in 2061)
India is expected to surpass 1.7 billion people, potentially the largest population on the planet, by 2061. Demographic momentum will continue for decades, despite recent slowing growth rates.
22. Bangladesh – 226 Million (Projected Peak in 2071)
Bangladesh’s population is on a slow but steady rise, reaching about 226 million by 2071, driven by high fertility rates compared to regional standards.
23. United Kingdom – 76 Million (Projected Peak in 2073)
The UK’s population is forecasted to hit approximately 76 million in 2073. Its aging demographic and moderate fertility rates are key factors shaping this projection.
24. Algeria – 65 Million (Long-term Projection in 2090)
Algeria’s population is expected to reach about 65 million around 2090, reflecting steady growth bolstered by high fertility and regional migration flows.
25. Kenya – 104 Million (Projected Peak in 2098)
Kenya’s population growth remains robust, reaching over 104 million by 2098, positioning it as Africa’s key demographic powerhouse.
26-40. Future Trends Beyond 2100
Countries like the United States, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Ethiopia, Sudan, Pakistan, Tanzania, and many in Africa and the Middle East are projected to experience their population peaks after 2100, if not indefinitely, depending on migration patterns and fertility rates.
Summary
As of 2025, eight of the forty largest countries, including China, Japan, and Russia, have already reached their population peaks. The global demographic landscape continues to shift with aging populations in the West and steady growth in many developing nations across Africa and Asia. Projections suggest that the world’s population will be largely stabilized or decreasing in many regions by mid-century, while others will surge or peak into the 22nd and 23rd centuries, influencing global economies, migration patterns, and geopolitical power balances.
Source: UN World Population Prospects (2025)
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