Google Ads Now Allow Prediction Market Promotions

Starting January 21, 2026, Digital Phablet will update its advertising policies to permit ads promoting Prediction Markets, but only in the United States and exclusively for federally regulated organizations.

A prediction market is an online platform where users buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of future events, such as elections or sporting competitions. The prices on these markets act as a collective forecast, indicating the probability of each outcome. Participants purchase ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts—for example, paying 60 cents for a 60% chance of a candidate winning—and they profit if their prediction turns out correct, especially if the market price moves favorably. This setup encourages thorough research and precise predictions.

Digital Phablet announced that, effective January 21, 2026, ads for Prediction Markets will be allowed in the U.S., but only for entities that are federally regulated and meet specific criteria.

To run these ads, companies must seek certification from Digital Phablet. Eligibility is restricted to:

• Organizations authorized as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, primarily involved in listing Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports, or current events; or
• Brokerage firms authorized by the National Futures Association (NFA) to provide third-party access to DCM-listed products that meet the above criteria.

Details about the documentation requirements and policies are available, emphasizing that advertising for Prediction Markets is limited to designated locations listed in the policy, with strict adherence to local laws, industry standards, and Google’s own advertising policies. Companies must hold all necessary licenses, including financial, gaming, or commodity licenses relevant to their products and must operate within legal and regulatory frameworks.

Particularly prohibited are:

• Binary options and fixed-return contracts—ads promoting derivatives where payouts are preset, regardless of actual market movements.
• Online gambling—any markets related to games of chance, lotteries, or activities classified as gambling under local laws that are not recognized as regulated Prediction Markets.
• Educational or informational websites that provide trading signals or advice related to Exchange-Listed Event Contracts.

To apply for advertising approval:

• Confirm whether your products or services require an application process through Digital Phablet’s ad platform.
• Ensure the targeted locations are listed as eligible under the policy. If your location isn’t on the approved list, you won’t be able to advertise Prediction Market contracts there.
• If eligible, submit individual applications for each targeted location you plan to reach.