Nearly Half of Flights Between China and Japan to Be Canceled Next Month

Due to a decline in travelers between China and Japan following recent diplomatic tensions, nearly half of the flights connecting the two countries are expected to be halted in January.

All flights across 46 routes linking China and Japan are scheduled to be canceled over the next two weeks, which could lead to the cancellation of approximately 2,195 flights next month—around 40 percent of the total, according to flight tracking data from Flight Manager.

The widespread suspensions are largely driven by a sharp drop in passenger demand since mid-November, with over 1,900 flights canceled this month up to December 22, according to data from Umetrip, a flight tracking app.

On November 14, Chinese authorities and their diplomatic missions in Japan advised citizens to avoid travel to Japan for the time being. Those already in Japan were encouraged to monitor the local security situation closely, remain vigilant, and take additional safety measures.

Despite the decline in flights, airfare on China-Japan routes is gradually increasing. For instance, the lowest fare (excluding taxes) for flights between Shanghai and Osaka Kansai has risen from CNY 100 (about USD 14.20) to CNY 500 (around USD 71.01) over the past month.

In response to the drop in flights to Japan, Chinese airlines are reallocating their capacity to other destinations, such as Southeast Asia, where the weather is milder, several airlines have reported.

Compared to the week when the Chinese government issued its cautious travel advisory for Japan, flight data shows the most notable increase in flights from China was to Thailand, followed by Australia and Malaysia. The highest growth rate was seen in flights to Australia, with significant increases also observed to New Zealand and Singapore.

Additionally, Thailand has re-emerged as the favored outbound destination for Chinese travelers. Flight bookings to Thailand increased by 21 percent from mid-January until just before the Chinese New Year in February compared to the previous year, according to platform data from Qunar.

During the upcoming New Year’s Day holiday, popular overseas destinations include South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam. Flight sales to Seoul surged 3.3 times year-over-year, making it especially popular among university students, while trips to Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi jumped by 3.2 and 2.4 times, respectively, attracting many travelers under 30.