International Gas Union VP: Natural Gas Demand Will Rise Long-Term

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Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy over the past decade, demand for natural gas is expected to remain strong for the foreseeable future, as it remains the primary low-carbon energy source. Natural gas continues to play a vital role in replacing high-carbon fuels, offering flexibility for grid management and helping to enhance energy security, according to the vice president of the International Gas Union.

Natural gas can significantly reduce emissions—by about 50 to 55 percent in urban living, around 40 percent in power generation, and approximately 20 percent in heavy-duty trucks and ships. However, renewable energy faces challenges such as supply variability, and current energy storage technologies are not yet capable of supporting large-scale integration of wind and solar power. Until large energy storage becomes commercially viable, natural gas will remain the primary option for supporting renewable energy consumption.

Over the last decade, global natural gas consumption grew by 23 percent, reaching 4.3 trillion cubic meters last year. It is projected to increase further, reaching approximately 4.8 trillion cubic meters over the next ten years. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas (LNG) consumption is expected to rise from 430 million tons to around 600 million tons by 2030.

China’s annual natural gas demand is forecasted to double by 2040, reaching at least 800 billion cubic meters from last year’s levels, presenting significant growth opportunities for the market. Given the geopolitical complexities, including conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and regional tensions in the Middle East, and the country’s reliance on external natural gas supplies—about 40 percent—she suggests that China should prioritize building strategic natural gas reserves to stabilize supply and prices.

Production within China is anticipated to increase to over 310 billion cubic meters by 2030 from 261.9 billion cubic meters in 2025, with its LNG import capacity surpassing 200 million tons annually.