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Global shipments of energy storage batteries are projected to grow between 30% and 40% annually in the upcoming year, which is notably lower than the more than 80% increase anticipated this year, according to industry leaders.
During a recent industry roundtable, Bu Xiangnan, EVP of a leading battery manufacturer, mentioned that next year’s growth rate is expected to be around 35% to 40%, with total shipments reaching approximately 800 to 900 gigawatt-hours. However, rising raw material costs could squeeze profit margins, potentially dampening end-user demand.
Liu Weizeng, the chairman of a prominent energy company, forecasted a 30% growth rate. He pointed out that this year’s surge was mainly driven by market reforms in renewable energy pricing, which helped address issues in wind and solar power generation—issues he believes will be resolved within three years. Nonetheless, the growth in new photovoltaic capacity installation in 2026 might be sluggish, possibly affecting the need for energy storage solutions.
Supply chain constraints and capacity limitations are primary factors slowing down growth. Wang Xiaoqiang, Senior VP at a major battery company, explained that despite soaring global demand, manufacturing capacity for battery cells remains tight, and a significant increase in large battery cell production is unlikely in the coming year.
Wang Yu, Chair of an energy storage company, suggested that market demand could potentially double; however, whether supply chains can keep pace and if rising prices will suppress consumer appetite remain uncertain. Xu Hailiang, VP at a testing and certification firm, emphasized that the expanding installed base and uncertainties around solar and wind projects are also crucial considerations.
Data from a recent industry report indicate that worldwide energy storage battery shipments are expected to surpass 650 GWh this year, with China’s energy storage system shipments exceeding 320 GWh. Both figures are projected to grow by over 80%. Companies like Sunwoda Electronic and Cornex achieved over 150% year-over-year growth in shipments during the first three quarters, while BYD and CALB also saw more than 100% increases.
Industry analyst Zhang Xiaofei noted that although current production capacity remains constrained in the short term, the industry should exercise caution against overexpansion in the longer term. He highlighted that while energy storage in commercial and industrial sectors holds immense potential, challenges such as fragmented application scenarios and difficulties in recouping investments persist. He also mentioned that models like virtual power plants and policy changes in electricity pricing will influence future growth trajectories.
Overall, the energy storage industry is heading toward larger scale operations, integration of smart technologies, and greater international cooperation amid robust growth and fierce competition. Leaders emphasize the importance of maintaining a global outlook, technological resilience, and strategic vision to navigate cyclicality and ensure sustainable development.
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