China Aims to Boost Key Investments into 2030

Over the next five years, China aims to significantly boost effective investment by expanding the scope for growth, strengthening the guiding and driving influence of government investments, and invigorating private sector participation.

Key efforts will include deepening reforms to the investment system and mechanisms, maintaining healthy investment growth, continuously enhancing investment efficiency, fostering a positive interplay between consumption and investment, as well as supply and demand, to support the development of a new growth model aligned with the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, according to a notice from the national development agency’s fixed-asset investment division released yesterday.

China plans to establish a sustainable framework encouraging private companies to engage in major projects and actively support their role in critical sectors such as railways, nuclear power, and hydropower—areas with promising return potential.

The unexpected slowdown in fixed-asset investment has emerged as a primary obstacle to stable economic performance and domestic demand growth, according to Wu Chaoming, chief economist at a financial research firm. Wu predicts a rebound in growth rates to approximately 2 to 3 percent next year, driven by policy initiatives.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that fixed-asset investments in China declined by 2.6 percent from January to November compared to the previous year, following a 1.7 percent decrease in the first ten months.

To bolster major national initiatives and strengthen strategic project funding, China is expected to introduce more long-term special treasury bonds in the upcoming year, marking the start of its 15th Five-Year Plan, noted Zhang Di, senior macro analyst at a major securities firm.

Strategic planning at the highest levels should guide infrastructure investments in critical areas such as national security, supply chain resilience, emerging infrastructure, energy, water management, and transportation, Zhang emphasized. Additionally, local governments are encouraged to develop multi-layered, diverse plans tailored to regional needs.

Infrastructure investment growth may rebound to around 5 to 6 percent next year from this year’s 3.5 percent, while manufacturing investment could increase to approximately 5 percent from 3.8 percent, supported by policies aimed at preventing overcapacity and renewing equipment, according to Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of a prominent enterprise investment alliance.

High-growth sectors identified include artificial intelligence, advanced machinery tools, industrial mother machines, and new energy equipment. Bai also projects that the decline in real estate investment will slow to about 5 percent, down from 10 percent.