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The closure of Pakistani airspace results in an estimated annual loss of $455 million for Air India. Passengers are increasingly opting for foreign airlines due to significantly shorter flight durations. Meanwhile, India is considering diplomatic approaches to persuade China to provide an alternative route for its carriers.
A company document obtained by Reuters reveals that Air India is urging the Indian government to lobby China to access a sensitive military airspace zone in Xinjiang, aiming to shorten flight paths and mitigate the financial impact caused by the ban on flying over Pakistan. This request comes shortly after direct flights between India and China resumed following a five-year suspension following a Himalayan border conflict.
Since the tragic crash of a London-bound Boeing Dreamliner in Gujarat in June, which resulted in 260 fatalities, Air India has been working to restore its reputation and expand its international connectivity. However, the closure of Pakistan’s airspace since diplomatic tensions escalated in late April has hampered these efforts, increasing fuel costs by up to 29% and extending some flight times by as much as three hours on long-haul routes, according to the document reviewed by Reuters.
The Indian government is analyzing Air India’s proposal to seek China’s approval for an alternative routing that would also include emergency landing access at airports in Hotan, Kashgar, and Urumqi in Xinjiang. This adjustment could help facilitate faster routes to the US, Canada, and Europe. The document highlights that securing the Hotan route is seen as a strategic move to combat operational and financial strains on Air India’s extensive long-haul network.
Owned by Tata Group and Singapore Airlines, Air India estimates the loss inflicted by the Pakistan airspace closure at roughly $455 million yearly, a figure that nearly matches its projected loss of $439 million for fiscal year 2024-25. The Chinese foreign ministry stated it was unaware of the situation and referred inquiries to “relevant authorities.” Both Indian and Chinese civil aviation bodies, along with Pakistan, did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
The specific Chinese airspace sought by Air India is surrounded by some of the world’s highest mountains—above 20,000 feet—and is generally avoided by international airlines due to safety concerns, especially in the event of decompression incidents. Additionally, this airspace falls within the operational jurisdiction of China’s Western Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army, which possesses extensive missile, drone, and air defense systems and shares some airports with civilian aircraft—further complicating access, according to military analysts. The Pentagon’s December report notes that the Western Theatre Command is responsible for responding to any potential conflict with India.
Recent satellite data indicates that Hotan airport has not seen any departures or arrivals from non-Chinese airlines in the past year. Aviation consultants like Shukor Yusof suggest that China is unlikely to grant access given the challenging terrain, lack of emergency airports, and regional security risks.
The broader global airspace is increasingly restricted due to ongoing conflicts. Since the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022, U.S. airlines have been barred from flying over Russia and have withdrawn from many India-U.S. routes, giving Air India a near monopoly on nonstop flights into and out of India. However, after Pakistan’s airspace was closed, the Delhi-Washington route was suspended in August. Other routes, such as Mumbai and Bengaluru flights to San Francisco, are becoming unviable due to added travel time—including stops in Kolkata—making some routes economically unsustainable.
In comparison, flights from San Francisco to Mumbai operated by Lufthansa via Munich now take only five minutes longer than those on Air India, primarily because of shorter routes. Passengers are shifting toward foreign carriers that offer shorter flight times, leveraging Pakistan overflights, according to internal airline assessments.
Air India believes that establishing a route through Hotan could significantly reduce fuel consumption and flight durations, helping the airline recover some of its capacity that has been trimmed by up to 15% on routes to New York and Vancouver. This could also potentially save the airline approximately $1.13 million weekly in losses.
With no immediate signs of easing the airspace restrictions, Air India is seeking a temporary subsidy until Pakistan’s airspace reopens. The airline, with a fleet order valued at $70 billion, is also working to resolve issues related to old tax liabilities. The Indian government offered indemnity against pre-sale claims following its 2022 sale to Tata, but notices for overdue taxes— totaling around $725 million—have been issued, posing legal and reputational risks. A confidential March government notice warned of “coercive measures” such as asset freezing to recover $58 million owed, complicating the airline’s financial stability amid ongoing disputes.
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