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India has accelerated the timeline for four hydropower projects currently under construction in the region of Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) by several months. This move follows the suspension of a water-sharing treaty with Pakistan that had previously hindered progress, as noted by industry insiders and government documents.
The revised timeline for these projects is an indication of India’s efforts to leverage the recent unilateral halt of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, particularly following a deadly incident in Kashmir last month.
India has alleged that two of the individuals behind the attack that claimed 26 lives at a popular tourist destination in Kashmir on April 22 were from Pakistan. Consequently, India has taken various diplomatic and economic measures against Islamabad, further deteriorating ties between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
Pakistan has denied any involvement in the attack, has threatened legal action regarding the treaty suspension, and has stated that any effort to divert or halt the flow of water intended for Pakistan will be seen as an act of war. Pakistan relies on the Indus river system for 80% of its agricultural activities and a substantial portion of its hydroelectric power.
The military forces from both countries have exchanged gunfire nearly every night for the past two weeks, with Pakistan claiming that India is on the verge of launching a military strike.
New Delhi has largely disregarded Pakistan’s concerns and has initiated actions that have already curtailed water supplies to Pakistan, which includes maintenance enhancements aimed at increasing the capacity of two operational hydropower projects in IIOJK.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has instructed relevant authorities to remove obstacles to the swift construction of four hydroelectric projects with a total capacity of 3,014 megawatts. This information comes from an undated list prepared by the Ministry of Power and reviewed by Reuters.
The four projects, which are all located on the Chenab River (primarily designated for Pakistan), are as follows: Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW), and Ratle (850 MW). India is permitted to construct run-of-the-river projects without significant water storage.
All four projects are being developed by NHPC, India’s largest hydropower company, with expected start dates ranging from June 2026 to August 2028, according to the document.
Multiple agencies, including those involved in law enforcement and labor supply, have been tasked with expediting the projects, as indicated in the document.
Both NHPC and the Indian ministries of power, water resources, and foreign affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comments.
Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority held a meeting on Monday, where officials expressed concern over a sudden drop in inflows from the Chenab River at the Marala headworks. This decrease, attributed to India’s actions, is expected to lead to further shortages for summer crops.
‘Plans for Expansion’
India’s water minister committed last month to “ensure that no drop of water from the Indus River reaches Pakistan.”
According to industry sources, there have been numerous meetings among officials from various private and government sectors with the power ministry in the past week regarding projects in the occupied region.
“Typically, directives to expedite existing projects like these suggest that the government may be planning new ones,” said a source who preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter.
In total, India aims to expedite seven projects with a combined capacity of 7 gigawatts, at an estimated cost of approximately ₹400 billion. Reuters was unable to identify all the projects involved.
Pakistan and India are already entangled in a dispute over the Ratle project, currently under review by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The disagreement revolves around water storage capacity, turbine design, and various other technical specifications.
The water treaty requires New Delhi to share detailed plans regarding projects on the three Indus rivers intended for Pakistan—the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers.
Modi’s government is advocating for modifications to the treaty, citing the increasing population in India and the necessity for cleaner energy sources such as hydropower.
While officials and experts from both nations had previously indicated that India couldn’t halt water flows immediately due to treaty restrictions against significant storage dams, a Pakistani official noted that flows from the Chenab River had already diminished significantly.
Since Sunday, water flow has plummeted by 90% from usual figures, reported Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, spokesperson for Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority, to Bloomberg News.
A source within Pakistan’s authority mentioned significant fluctuations in Chenab’s flow, observing a drop from 31,000 cusecs at the Marala headworks on Sunday to a low of 3,100 cusecs on Monday, before rising again to 25,000 cusecs.
“These fluctuations in water supply result from India’s activities concerning hydro projects,” the source explained. “They can regulate the flow, causing reductions and then releasing water. The extent of these fluctuations won’t cause severe damage, but they do have an impact on canal operations.”
